Sample News Story
Britain could face gas shortages without key upstream investments, says Transco
12/12/2002
British gas consumers could face a peak supply deficit in 2005/6 unless certain key upstream infrastructure is delivered – most notably Interconnector compression facilities at Zeebrugge – says transportation company Transco in its latest “ten-year statement”. Even under average winter conditions, without this new upstream infrastructure interruptible consumers could face “very long periods of shipper-initiated interruption”.
The annual “ten-year statement”, required by Transco’s gas transporter licence, sets out the company’s assessment of the future demand and supply position for gas in Britain, and the consequences for investment in the network. The 2002 edition is the first to be published by the merged National Grid Transco
Transco forecasts a 16% increase in demand by 2011/12, with peak demand growing by 20%. Most of this increase will take place in the middle of the decade. “Growth in the early years,” says Transco, “is likely to be depressed as a result of a slow-down in the gas-fired power generation and manufacturing sectors, and reduced exports to Ireland and Europe.”
To meet future levels of demand, says Transco, new sources of supply will be required. These could include: new UKCS developments, pipeline imports, or imported LNG. Because the UKCS is a mature gas area, with the scale of new discoveries on the decline, Transco says Britain’s import dependency “is forecast to be at least 45% by 2011/12”.
Transco’s network analysis indicates that NTS investment of the order of £1.1-£1.6 billion will be required over the life of the long-term plan.
The ten-year statement stresses the uncertainty that Britain faces over the coming decade: “In addition to the uncertainty regarding the location of new supplies,” it says, “physically undertaking investment on the NTS is becoming increasingly challenging as a result of changes to environmental legislation and mounting pressure from landowners for increased compensation payments. With the UK’s growing dependence on imports and the progressive tightening of supply, the planning of the transmission infrastructure is moving into an inherently more uncertain era in which lead times are likely to become a more critical factor.”
* The ten-year statement can be downloaded from: www.transco.uk.com